Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 6/29/26 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Pirates Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Pirates Pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 42-42 on the year and play the Nationals and Braves next. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .258 on the season and have a .337 OBP and a .418 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 86 hits and 52 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe and Nick Gonzales have combined for 160 hits and 91 RBIs.

Braxton Ashcraft gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season. Ashcraft is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 47-37 on the year and play the Reds and Royals next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .236 on the season, with a .301 OBP and a .400 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Brandon Marsh leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 93 hits and 42 RBI, while Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have combined for 159 hits and 75 RBI.

Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 3-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 82 strikeouts this season. Nola is 4-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 68 strikeouts in his career against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against the Phillies following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The favorites have won each of the Phillies’ last nine games.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a road win.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Pirates and Phillies.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games as favorites has gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Phillies’ last nine night games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Pirates’ last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games against the Pirates.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against the Pirates.
• Aaron Nola has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his four previous home appearances against the Pirates.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 15 home games against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 12 night games.
• Bryan Reynolds ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.402) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (798).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.301).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (752).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (783).

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction

We know what Nola is capable of when he’s right, but a 5.58 ERA and 1.45 WHIP isn’t doing it for me. Nola has allowed 26 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 24 innings. At home through 34 frames, Nola has a 5.82 ERA and a .308 allowed batting average. Ashcraft has been much stronger with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and he has a 2.93 ERA and .223 allowed batting average in 43 innings on the road. Pick em spot, I’ll side with the better pitcher and take the Pirates.