Phillies vs Reds Prediction 7/4/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies meet Friday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Reds Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Reds Pick.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 45-42 on the year and play the Marlins and Rockies next. The Cincinnati Reds are batting .247 on the season, have a .319 OBP, and a .400 slugging percentage. The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz leads the Cincinnati Reds with 92 hits and 58 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer have combined for 162 hits and 66 RBI.

Andrew Abbott gets the ball for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 76 strikeouts this season. Abbott is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 7 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 51-36 on the year and play the Giants and Padres next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .256 on the season, have a .330 OBP, and a .404 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 104 hits and 39 RBI, while Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have combined for 182 hits and 84 RBI.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 111 strikeouts this season. Luzardo is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts in his career against the Cincinnati Reds.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games as home favorites.
• The Reds have lost each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Phillies’ last seven games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as underdogs against the Phillies following a win.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Phillies have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Reds have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in each of the Phillies’ last four games against the Reds.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against former teams.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Trea Turner ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (104) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (22) this season.

Phillies vs Reds Prediction

The Phillies should be favored at home, and Luzardo has above-average stuff that has him in the top 15 in strikeouts. However, Luzardo is coming off a subpar June, where he allowed 30 hits and 15 runs in 25 innings. Abbott is having a hell of a season where he has a 1.79 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, and he’s allowed one or fewer runs in his last four starts. In 38 road innings, Abbott has a 1.42 ERA and a .144 allowed batting average. I’ll take a shot with the Reds and the more favorable price.