Phillies vs Twins Prediction 9/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Twins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 94-65 this season after they won two out of three against Miami by scores of 5-6, 11-1, and 1-0. In their game three win, Philadelphia scored the only run in the game in the first inning, which was enough to get the low scoring win. The Phillies recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Bohm, who went 2-4 with one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Buehler, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Robertson picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did win two out of three against the Dodgers before that. Philadelphia has lost three of their last five games and they are first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 773 runs with a .260 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 17 home runs and 71 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 4-10 with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 86.1 innings pitched this season. 

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 69-90 this year after they won two out of three against Texas by scores of 4-1, 2-4, and 4-0. In their game three win, Minnesota scored once in the first and added three more runs in the eighth to seal the victory. The Twins recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Buxton, who went 2-4 with two home runs and four RBIs in the win. Minnesota started Ober, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Funderburk picked up a hold. 

Prior to that series, the Twins lost three out of four against the Guardians and two out of three against the Yankees. Minnesota has won three of their last four games and they are fourth in the AL Central standings. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .258 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 671 runs with a .239 batting average and a .311 on base percentage this season. Byron Buxton has led Minnesota with 34 home runs and 82 RBIs, while Matt Wallner has added 22 home runs and 40 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Joe Ryan, who is 13-9 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 166.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Twins

• The Phillies have won each of their last 11 night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Twins will beat the Phillies

• The Twins have won four of their last five games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games against the Twins following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Phillies.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Twins have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last six games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Twins’ last nine games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Phillies’ last nine home games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in four of the Phillies’ last five home games.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton has recorded at least one hit in 16 of his last 18 appearances after playing the previous day.
• Joe Ryan has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in each of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.

Phillies vs Twins Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into the last series of the year as one of the top teams in the MLB and they don’t have much to play for here. The Phillies are 53-25 at home this year, while the Twins are 31-47 on the road. Minnesota has won three of their last four games, but they are just limping to the finish line this season. The Twins are starting Ryan, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. The Phillies are starting Nola, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in four of his last five. Take the over here.