Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 9/17/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs meet on Wednesday in MLB action from PNC Park. Here’s a Pirates vs Cubs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Cubs pick. 

Strong Win for the Cubs

The Cubs got some runs early on Tuesday against Paul Skenes and the pitching was dominant the rest of the night to pick up the victory. Michael Bush had a huge game, finishing with three hits, two runs, one walk, one RBI, and one home run. Pete Crow- Armstrong also finished with a hit and drove in two RBIs. Cade Horton had another strong start and he went five innings giving up three hits and one run. 

The Cubs are averaging 4.87 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.03 runs per game. The offense is ranked 7th while the pitching is ranked 8th. They have a run differential of 0.84 which is 2nd in the league. Michael Busch has hit 29 home runs and driven in 80 RBIs so far this season. Matthew Boyd gets the start for the Cubs and he sits with a 13-8 record and an ERA of 3.05. In his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays, he went five innings giving up five hits and four runs. 

Why the Cubs Will Beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at PNC Park.

Rare Bad Outing for Paul Skenes

It was a rare bad outing for Paul Skenes, and once again the bats refused to give him any run support. Skenes completed 3.2 innings giving up seven hits and three earned runs. He had six strikeouts and three walks. Oneil Cruz finished with a hit and an RBI, but he was the only real bright spot with the bats. 

The Pirates are averaging 3.58 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.06 runs per game. The offense is ranked 30th while the pitching is ranked 7th. They have a negative run differential of -0.49 which is 23rd in the league. Getting the start for the Pirates is Johan Oviedo who sits with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 2.81. Against the Baltimore Orioles he went 5.2 innings giving up five hits and two runs. Two starts ago against the Milwaukee Brewers he went five innings giving up one hit and one run. The Pirates have lost each of his last two starts. 

Why the Pirates WIll Beat the Cubs

• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have won nine of their last 10 Wednesday games as home underdogs.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against the Cubs following a loss.

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 

The Pirates and Cubs are both going to really struggle to get the offense going in this game. Even though the Pirates have struggled to wi nthe last coupe of starts by Oviedo, he has been good, and he’s going to have a huge start again here. The Cubs bats have been fine this season, but they are going to be ice cold here. I also really trust Matthew Boyd and he’s going to dominate this start against a Pirates offense that has been a major issue all season. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game, and this game is going to end up staying under the total. Back the under to cash here with ease.