Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction 7/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 26th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 42-62 this year after they lost game one in this series by a score of 1-0. Pittsburgh had no success at the plate in this game, as they were shutout over 11 innings for the loss. The Pirates recorded just one hit in the game and they were led by Pham, who had the lone hit. Pittsburgh started Burrows, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Ashcraft was charged with the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates won all three against the Tigers, but lost all three against the White Sox before that. Pittsburgh has won three of their last four games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 350 runs with a .230 batting average and a .300 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 16 home runs and 40 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 10 home runs and 50 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Andrew Heaney, who is 4-9 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 102.0 innings pitched this year. 

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 51-53 this season after they won game one by a score of 1-0 on Friday night. Arizona was held scoreless over the first 10 innings, but they scored on a sac fly in the 11th for the win. The Diamondbacks recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Suarez, who had one RBI in the victory. Arizona started Nelson, who allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while DeSclafani got the win and Ginkel picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Diamondbacks lost all three against the Astros, but did sweep the Cardinals in three games before that. Arizona has won five of their last eight games and they are currently fourth in the NL West standings. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 523 runs with a .252 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this year. Eugenio Suarez has led Arizona with 36 home runs and 87 RBIs, while Corbin Carroll has added 21 home runs and 50 RBIs this season. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 122.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have won eight of their last nine night games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against the Diamondbacks following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games following a road win.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight night games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs.
• Andrew Heaney has recorded four or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• James McCann has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Eugenio Suarez has hit at least one home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction 

Both of these teams really struggled at the plate on Friday night, but Arizona was able to find a way to score one run for the win. The Diamondbacks are 25-25 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 29-25 at home. Pittsburgh couldn’t carry that momentum from their sweep of Detroit, as they continue to be the lowest scoring team in the MLB. The Pirates are starting Heaney, who has allowed 7, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last three outings. The Diamondbacks are going with Kelly, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Kelly has been the way better pitcher in this matchup, so I will take Arizona to win.