Pirates vs Nationals Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12^th at the Nationals Park the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 60-86 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 29-42 home record and are 74-63 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-5 road defeat by the Marlins, and have back-to-back losses. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Mets and the Braves next.

The Nationals have a .245 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .390 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. James Wood leads the Nationals with 141 hits, while CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .266 batting average. James Wood adds a team-high 88 RBI and leads the team in home runs, with 27.

Brad Lord (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 5-8 record, 4.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 64-83 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 22-50 road record, and are 59-83 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 road defeat by the Orioles, and have six consecutive losses. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games are playing the Cubs and the Pirates vs Nationals Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Todaynext.

The Pirates have a .232 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .349 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 130 hits, and a team-high 70 RBI. Andrew McCutchen the team’s best hitter with a .244 batting average, while Oneil Cruz leads the team in home runs, with 19.

Mitch Keller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 6-14 record, 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: September 12, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brad Lord       Record this season: 5-8      ERA: 4.20
• Home Record: 1-4
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-1

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last six games.
• The Nationals have won each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller      Record this season: 6-14      ERA: 4.16
• Road Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Nationals: 1-2

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last seven home games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with the Nationals as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in five of the Pirates’ last six road games against the Nationals.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games against the Nationals.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.30).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.267).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (527).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (105).

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction

The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Nationals, and their last three meetings have gone under the total.

In this Pirates vs Nationals Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they both have been mediocre this season, and are coming into this matchup in poor form. Lord for the Nationals has a 7.40 ERA across his last 5 starts, and has been weaker at home, with a 5.23 ERA. Keller for the Pirates has a 5.84 ERA in his last 5 starts, and both pitchers have 3 and 4 earned runs in their only starts against the opposing team this season. Washington has the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, so even though the offenses are struggling lately, this is a recipe for a high-scoring game. Take the over 8 runs.