Pirates vs Padres Prediction 6/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the San Diego Padres on Sunday, June 1^st at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pirates vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 32-24 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 19-10 home record, and are 23-31 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 0-5 home defeat by the Pirates, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games, and are playing the Giants and the Brewers next.

The Padres have a .249 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 64 hits and team-high .308 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 34, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 13 home runs.

Randy Vasquez (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 3-4 record, 3.58 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has been better at home, with a 2.57 ERA across five home starts and he has give up two runs or less in four of his last five starts. In his previous start against the Pirates this season, he gave up one run in 5 innings of work.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 22-37 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 9-21 road record, and are 22-34 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-0 road victory over the Padres, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Phillies and the Astros next.

The Pirates have a .228 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .338 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 53 hits, and a team-high 34 RBI. Andrew McCutchen is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average.

Andrew Heaney (L) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 3-4 record, 3.41 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has a 3.67 ERA across five road starts, and he is coming off a bad start where he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings of work. In his previous start against the Padres this season, he gave up 4 runs in 3.2 innings of work. Andrew Heaney has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 1.99 and 30 strikeouts in 6 appearances versus the Padres in his career.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 12 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won each of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in five of their last six day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last three games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Pirates’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last seven Sunday games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Pirates’ last eight day games against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (386).
• The Padres rank T3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (423).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.338).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (190).

Pirates vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings against the Pirates, and 4-1 this season. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings. In this Pirates vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -150 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been very strong at home, while the Pirates have been terrible on the road, but the Padres are putting arguably their weakest pitcher on the mound in Randy Vasquez.

Vasquez has terrible advanced stats, with a 5.55 SIERA and 5.59 expected ERA, and the Pirates are better against righties, while the Padres are weaker against lefties. Just like yesterday, when there was also a leftie on the mound for the Pirates, I expect them to keep this one close before their struggling bullpen comes in. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates at +0.5 runs in the first 5 innings.