San Diego Padres (19-11) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (12-20)
May 2, 2025 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Pittsburgh Pirates 124 / San Diego Padres -148; Over/Under: 8
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 2nd, at Oracle Park. Let’s take a look at the San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates pick.
Padres Look for Third Straight Win
The Padres are looking for their third straight win after winning their last two games against the San Francisco Giants. In the last game, the offense managed five runs on the way to the two-run victory. Elias Diaz had a strong game, hitting a home run. Michael King also had a really good start, going 5.2 innings, giving up three hits and one earned run.
The Padres are averaging 3.93 runs while their pitching is giving up 3.0 runs per game. The offense is ranked 19th, while the pitching is the top in baseball. This pitching staff for this squad has not gotten enough attention for how well they have pitched this season. Getting the start for the Padres in this game will be Dylan Cease, who hasn’t been a bright spot for the team, sitting with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.76. Against the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start, he went 4.1 innings, giving up six his and three runs.
Pirates Continue to Struggle
The Pirates continue to struggle, and they are coming off a disappointing loss. The Pirates scored three runs against the Chicago Cubs, and that led to the defeat. Paul Skenes didn’t have his best stuff, and he went five innings, giving up five hits and three earned runs. He had four walks and two strikeouts. Bryan Reynolds had a solid game, and he hit a home run and drove in two RBIs.
The Pirates are averaging 3.41 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.59 runs per game. The offense is ranked 27th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 21st. Oneil Cdruz has hit eight home runs and driven in 17 RBIs. Getting the start for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller, who sits with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 3.97. Against the Dodgers in his last start, he went six innings, giving up five hits and two runs.
Why the Pirates Will Beat the Padres
- The Pirates have won six of their last seven games as underdogs following a home loss.
- The Padres have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
Total Run Facts
- Four of the Pirates’ last five night games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Three of the Padres’ last four games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Pirates’ last 11 games against NL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
Pirates vs Padres Prediction
The Pirates have struggled this season, but even the worst teams win games, and that is going to be the case here. Getting the start for the Padres is Dylan Cease, and he sits with an ERA of 5.76. The Pirates’ offense has been inconsistent, but they are going to get the offense out to a fast start, and that will be the difference here. The Pirates might only score four or five runs, but that will be enough with a strong start from Mitch Keller. Back the Pirates.
