Pirates vs Padres Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates meet Saturday in MLB action at PNC Park. Here’s a Pirates vs Padres Prediction. This article will include a Pirates vs Padres Pick.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 20-11 on the year and play the Yankees, Rockies, and Angels next. The San Diego Padres are batting .263 on the season, have a .332 OBP, and a .395 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the San Diego Padres with 39 hits and 18 RBI, while Manny Machado and Luis Arraez have combined for 63 hits and 25 RBI.

Randy Vasquez gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. Vasquez is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 3 strikeouts in his career against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 12-21 on the year and play the Cardinals, Braves, and Mets next. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .224 on the season, have a .305 OBP, and a .339 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff has a 4.34 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 32 hits and 17 RBI, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ke’Bryan Hayes have combined for 55 hits and 20 RBI.

Bailey Falter gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA and 22 strikeouts this season. Falter is 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA and 4 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost four of their last seven games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against NL Central opponents.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in each of their last four day games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine Saturday games as road favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Padres.
• Andrew McCutchen has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Adam Frazier has scored a run in each of his last seven appearances against the Padres at PNC Park.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in 21 of his last 22 appearances in day games.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as favorites.
• Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Double in four of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Padres’ last eight games against NL opponents.

Pirates vs Padres Prediction

This price is soft when you consider the Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball all season. Yes, Vasquez has had his struggles, which include allowing 20 hits and 13 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings. Vasquez also has an ERA over six on the road through 11.2 innings. However, Falter has allowed 25 hits and 18 earned runs in his last 24.1 innings. He has an ERA of nearly six on the season. The Pirates are also the inferior team. I was originally going to lean toward the over, but the Padres have to be the play at this price, simply being the better team by a decent-sized gap.