Pirates vs Padres Prediction 5/30/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the San Diego Padres on Friday, May 30^th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pirates vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 31-23 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have an 18-9 home record and are 23-29 in over/under. The Padres are coming off an 8-10 home defeat by the Marlins, which ended their previous three-game winning streak. Under is 4-2-1 in their last 7 games, and they are playing the Giants and the Brewers next.

The Padres have a .253 batting average this season, a .319 OBP, and a .391 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 63 hits and a team-high .313 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 34, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 13 home runs.

Nick Pivetta (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 5-2 record, 2.72 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. He has been much better at home, with a 1.44 ERA across five home starts. He has been in excellent form, with just two earned runs in 12 innings pitched across his last two starts. Nick Pivetta has a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 1.96 and 22 strikeouts in 5 appearances against the Pirates in his career.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 21-36 record this season and are sitting in last place in the NL Central. They have an 8-20 road record, and are 22-32 in over/under. They are coming off a 10-1 road victory over the Diamondbacks and have back-to-back wins. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games are playing the Phillies and the Astros next.

The Pirates have a .226 batting average this season, a .306 OBP, and a .337 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 48 hits and a team-high 31 RBI. Andrew McCutchen is the team’s best hitter with a .253 batting average.

Mitch Keller (R) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 1-6 record, 3.66 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. He has been better on the road, with a 2.88 ERA across four road starts, and he has been in excellent form lately, with just two earned runs in 12 innings pitched across his last two starts. In his previous start against the Padres this season, he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings of work. Mitch Keller has a 2-4 record with an ERA of 6.10 and 21 strikeouts in 6 appearances against the Padres in his career.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 11 night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost 15 of their last 16 games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four road night games.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The underdogs have won eight of the Padres’ last 12 games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in five of the Pirates’ last six games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four home night games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Pirates’ last 16 games as underdogs against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (379).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (404).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.337).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (183).

Pirates vs Padres Prediction

The Padres have won their last nine meetings against the Pirates, including a 3-0 series win this season, where they outscored them 15-5. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Pirates vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -187 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season and have been very strong at home, while the Pirates have been terrible on the road. The Pirates are coming off back-to-back high-scoring wins, but this was an anomaly for a team that is the 5^th-worst in hitting and averages just 3.2 runs this season. The Padres have the pitching advantage in Pivetta, and Keller has been torched by Padres bats historically. The Padres also have the better bullpen and better hitting, so this matchup is all Padres. Take the San Diego Padres on the runline.