Pirates vs Reds Prediction 5/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 1st at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 16-16 this year after they lost all four games against the Cardinals by scores of 2-4, 7-11, 4-5, and 5-10. In game four, Pittsburgh cut the deficit to 5-4 in the seventh inning, but they allowed five runs in the eighth to seal the loss. The Pirates recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Reynolds, who went 2-4 with two RBIs. Skenes allowed eight hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Mattson allowed five earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Brewers, but lost two out of three against the Rangers before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .225 opponent batting average, while they have scored 153 runs with a .244 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with nine home runs and 26 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added eight home runs and 20 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-11 this season after they won two out of three against the Rockies by scores of 7-2, 2-13, and 6-4. In game three, Cincinnati trailed 2-0 in the first inning, but they scored the next six runs to secure the win. The Reds recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Steer, who went 2-3 with two RBIs. Abbott allowed five hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Pagan allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Cincinnati won two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Reds. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.02 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while they have scored 133 runs with a .220 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Brady Singer, who is 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 29.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won 13 of their last 15 night games against the Reds at PNC Park following a loss.
• The Reds have lost five of their last six night games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against the Reds at PNC Park following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at PNC Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Friday night games.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 12 home games against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have won each of the Pirates’ last six games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last six games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games at PNC Park against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Friday games against the Pirates.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven night games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Reds and Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as favorites against the Reds.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Reds.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine games as favorites against the Reds.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T5th in the league in Steals (10) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Brady Singer has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 12 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (301).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (306).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (226).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.220).

Pirates vs Reds Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup after a brutal series against the Cardinals and they have allowed at least five runs in four of their last five games. The Pirates are 8-9 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-3 on the road. Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have scored 6+ in those three wins. The Reds are starting Singer, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, while Keller has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. I know Cincinnati is great on the road and Pittsburgh is struggling, but I like the Pirates to bounce back here.