Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/17/26 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Friday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will start Nick Martinez here and Martinez is 0-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. In his career, Martinez is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 17 strikeouts against the Pirates. Bubba Chandler will start here for the Pirates and is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. This will be Chandler’s first career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to add on to their 5-3 win over the Chicago White Sox last time out to sit at 11-7 this season. After this series, the Rays will head home for a series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Rays Win 6 In A Row

Yandy Diaz has 26 hits with 2 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 16 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 24 hits with 2 triples and 4 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 16 hits with 4 doubles, a home run and 7 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 15 hits with 4 doubles, 3 homers and 15 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 17 hits with 2 doubles, 4 home runs and 7 RBIs and Ben WIlliamson has 13 hits with 4 doubles and 6 RBIs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from an 8-7 loss at the hands of Washington last time out to sit at 11-8 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Pirates Alternate Wins & Losses In 6 Straight

Oneil Cruz has 24 hits including 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 21 hits with 3 doubles, 3 home runs and 13 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 15 hits with 3 doubles and 10 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 17 hits with 2 doubles, 7 home runs and 16 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 19 hits with a double, a triple, 3 home runs and 12 RBIs as well this season.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: April 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bubba Chandler      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 3.86
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last six games following a loss.
• The Rays have lost 21 of their last 25 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 2.16
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 2-2

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last six games.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have won the first inning in five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against the Pirates.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last five road night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Fourteen of the Pirates’ last 16 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Rays’ last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Friday night appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Jared Triolo has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as home favorites.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (9) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (26) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.342).
• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.27).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (130).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (139).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’m on the Rays here. I just haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Chandler up to this point despite being one of the more highly-touted prospects in the Pirates system. Tampa Bay continues to find ways to win this season early on despite the bullpen being in shambles, and I think the Rays snag another W here. Give me the Rays.