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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 6-21-24 Picks

Tampa Bay Rays (36-39) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-38)
June 21, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Pittsburgh Pirates / Tampa Bay Rays ; Over/Under: -
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In this article we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Friday, June 21st at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series. 

Pirates are Moving Up in the NL Central 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 36-38 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series win against Cincinnati, where they won two out of three games and only allowed three runs in the series. Prior to that series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Rockies, lost two out of three against the Cardinals, and won two out of three against the Twins. Pittsburgh is 9-6 in their last 15 games and they are third in the NL Central standings. 

The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 299 runs with a .230 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .271 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh is 15th in team ERA this year and they have allowed two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. 

Rays Trying to Gain Momentum 

The Tampa Bay Rays are 36-39 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series win against Minnesota, where they won two out of three games and scored 16 runs in the series. Prior to that series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Braves, won two out of three against the Cubs, and lost all four against the Orioles. Tampa Bay is 5-8 in their last 13 games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.44 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 295 runs with a .233 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .287 with 11 home runs and 39 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay is 24th in team ERA this year and they have allowed at least six runs in five of their last six games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Luis Ortiz, who is 3-2 with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 43.0 innings pitched this year. Ortiz has allowed just one earned run in his last four outings (15.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 63.0 innings pitched this season. Pepiot has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts and has allowed nine earned runs and 15 hits in his last two outings. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

  • The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Rays and Pirates.
  • The Rays have lost each of their last four night games following a win.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in four of their last five games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

  • Eight of the Pirates’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Seven of the Rays’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last five road games against National League opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Rays and Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Pirates’ last six home games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Connor Joe has scored a run in each of his last six appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one total base in each of the Pirates’ last 17 games.
  • Rowdy Tellez has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three home appearances.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 17 games.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 13 games.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of the Rays’ last eight night games.
  • Jose Siri has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays’ last five road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances against NL opponents.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rays’ last 13 games.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series a few games under .500, but they are coming off of series wins and are trying to gain momentum. The Rays are 17-16 on the road, while the Pirates are 18-18 at home. Pittsburgh has had some great pitching over the last five games and it looks like they are going to go with Luis Ortiz as a starter or a bulk reliever. Ortiz has been solid in recent outings, but shouldn’t be expected to go very deep into the game. The Rays are starting Ryan Pepiot, but he has not pitched well recently. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has been much better than Tampa Bay’s recently and my Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction is for the Pirates to win. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Pirates ML

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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