The Washington Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Thursday in MLB action from PNC Park. This will be the finale in a four-game series. After a split in the first pair, in the Wednesday game three the Pirates eked out a one-run win. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place. 

Washington Nationals 

The Nationals secured a 6-2 win on Monday in this series, thanks in part to two homers and three RBI from CJ Abrams. Game two was a disappointing 5-1 loss, however. In game three on Wednesday Washington gave up four runs in the first inning on the way to a 7-6 loss. Drew Millas and Dominic Smith (two RBI; two runs) each had homers in the defeat. 

In the starter role for the Nationals on Thursday it’ll be Josiah Gray. This year in 27 starts Gray is 7-11 with a 4.13 ERA and 122 Ks in 141.2 innings. Gray has gone 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA over his last seven starts. 

Washington Nationals Team Facts

The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs following a loss.
The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against the Pirates following a loss.
The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five day games.
The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates 

Over on the Pirates’ side, they scored twice in both the second and fifth innings during the Tuesday win, totaling 11 team hits. Joshua Palacios posted two hits, two RBI and a homer in the victory. On Wednesday the Pirates were up 7-1 after four innings but had to hang on for the win. Bryan Reynolds finished with two RBI, two runs, three hits and a homer. 

Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Thursday start. This year Keller is 11-9 with a 4.23 ERA and 191 Ks in 174.2 innings. Keller is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA over his last seven starts, striking out 46 in 41.0 frames. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

The Pirates have lost each of their last six day games following a win.
The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games following a win.
The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 13 home day games.
The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last three day games at PNC Park.

Matchup/League Facts

The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (157).
The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T27th in the league for home runs this season (142).
The Washington Nationals ranks 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1033).
The Washington Nationals ranks 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (222).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK 

I’ll stick with the Pirates here. Keller is in need of a bounce-back start, though. In his last outing Keller took a loss versus the Braves with 5.0 innings, eight earned runs and 12 hits total. In his two starts prior to that however, Keller went 1-0 with just one earned run in 14.0 total innings. On Wednesday Pittsburgh got off to a great start at the plate and finished with 11 team hits. The Pirates have five or more runs in three of the last five games, so if the offense keeps it up in the finale behind a quality outing from Keller I think Pittsburgh gets the W.