Rangers vs Astros Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rangers vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 17, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros (23-21, 8-12 Away) bounced back from series losses to the White Sox and Brewers with wins against the Reds and Royals. The Astros then opened this rivarly series against the Rangers with a 1-0 loss but responded with a 6-3 victory, thanks to a six-run 7th inning. Christian Walker led the offense with three RBI, while Lance McCullers Jr. pitched for 4.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs (none earned) on four hits with two strikeouts and a walk. Kaleb Ort was credited with the win.

This year, the Astros average 4.09 runs per game (19th in the MLB) on a .249/.320/.376  triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Astros’ staff has a 3.35 ERA (7th) and 1.12 WHIP (1st). Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with a .306 batting average, six home runs, and 23 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Astros is Ronel Blanco, who is 3-3 in eight starts this season, with a 4.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 42.1 innings.

Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers (24-22, 16-9 Home) defeated the Tigers, swept the Rockies, and opened the series against the Astros with a 1-0 win to make it six in a row for the first time this year. However, the Astros prevented them from their seventh consecutive win on Friday. In last night’s 6-3 defeat, Jonah Heim led the team with two RBI, while Nathan Eovaldi pitched for 5.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing no runs on two hits with five strikeouts and three walks. Shawn Armstrong took the loss.

This season, the Rangers average 3.43 runs per game (26th in the MLB) on a .228/.289/.369 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Rangers’ staff has a 3.35 ERA (7th) and 1.12 WHIP (1st). Adolis Garcia leads the Rangers with a .225 batting average, six home runs, and 24 RBI this season.

Tyler Mahle will take the mound for the Rangers on Saturday. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 4-1 record in nine starts this year with a 1.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 49.0 innings.

Why the Rangers will beat the Astros

• The Astros have lost each of their last six games against AL West opponents following a win.
• The Rangers have won each of their last 13 Saturday games as home favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games following a road win.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in four of their last five night games following a home loss.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Astros’ last seven games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the Rangers’ last four games as favorites against the Astros have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last nine games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight night games between the Astros and Rangers at Globe Life Field.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rangers rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.289).
• The Rangers rank T3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (37).
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for runs allowed this season (157).
• The Astros rank 26th in the league for steals this season (22).

Rangers vs Astros Prediction

The Astros have won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. In this one, though, I am backing the Rangers to win because of Tyler Mahle, who has been lights out this season. Mahle is having the best season of his career. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game yet, and I doubt he will on Saturday. Mahle allowed a .217 BA in 46 at-bats against the Astros. Ronel Blanco, on the other hand, displayed his best performance of the season in his previous start against the Reds, but he has already surrendered 3+ runs in five starts. Go with the Rangers.