Rangers vs Mets Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rangers vs Mets Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12^th at the Citi Field the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 76-71 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 45-27 home record and are 69-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-6 road defeat by the Phillies, and have six consecutive losses. Over is 3-0 in their last 3 games and are playing the Padres and the Nationals next.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .427 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 154 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .267. He also adds a team-high 113 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 39 home runs.

Jonah Tong (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-1 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 77-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 30-42 road record and are 65-79 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-3 home victory over the Brewers, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 games and are playing the Astros and the Marlins next.

The Rangers have a .236 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .387 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 117 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .254 batting average. Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Corey Seager adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Jacob deGrom (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers, and he has a 11-7 record, 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Texas Rangers @ New York Mets Betting Trends: September 12, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jonah Tong      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 4.09
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Rangers: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Rangers have lost each of their last 10 road games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The home team has won each of the Mets’ last six games.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Citi Field against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom      Record this season: 11-7      ERA: 2.78
• Road Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have won each of the Rangers’ last five games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Rangers have won the first inning in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rangers’ last five road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets’ last five night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rangers’ last six games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games against AL West opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four home games.
• Juan Soto has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games as favorites against AL opponents.
• Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against the Rangers.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.400) this season.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Jacob deGrom has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jacob deGrom has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Corey Seager has hit a home run in three of the Rangers’ last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Corey Seager has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rangers as underdogs.
• Jacob deGrom ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.78) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (134).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (517).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.43).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (539).

Rangers vs Mets Prediction

The Mets are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Rangers, but both teams are tied 4-4 wins in their last 8 meetings in New York. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Rangers vs Mets Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. This like looks wrong, as the Mets are on a free fall lately, and are putting in inexperienced pitcher on the mound in Jonah Tong, who struggled in his last start. On the flip side, the Rangers have been red-hot and coming off a series sweep against the Brewers and are putting their ace on the mound in Jacob deGrom. Texas also has the 7^th-best bullpen in baseball to back him up, so I love them in this spot in a pickem price. Take the Texas Rangers on the moneyline on the road.