Rays vs Astros Prediction 9/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 11th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 87-59 this season after they won two out of three against the Braves by scores of 7-1, 7-2, and 1-3. In game three, Tampa Bay allowed three runs in the eighth for the tough loss. The Rays recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Mesa Jr, who went 1-1 with one home run and one RBI. Martinez allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.1 innings, while Kelly allowed three earned runs for the loss. Prior to that series, Tampa Bay split four games with the Rangers and lost two out of three against the Mets before that. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while they have scored 662 runs with a .260 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 19 home runs and 86 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 39 home runs and 93 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 153.1 innings pitched this season. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 75-72 this year after they won two out of three against the Phillies by scores of 6-5, 7-11, and 2-1. In game three, Houston blew a 1-0 lead in the fifth inning, but scored in the ninth to get the win. The Astros recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Smith, who went 2-3 with one home run and one RBI. Javier allowed three hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Abreu got the win and Hader picked up the save. Prior to that series, Houston lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did win three out of four against the White Sox before that. 

This season, Houston has a 4.52 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 662 runs with a .241 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 38 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Miguel Ullola, who is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 7.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won seven of their last eight night games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have lost each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six games as favorites against AL opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against AL opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 15 of the Rays’ last 17 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Astros’ last nine games as underdogs against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last five games between the Astros and Rays at Tropicana Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Astros’ last nine night games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Rays’ last six games against AL opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Richie Palacios has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in seven of his last eight appearances against AL opponents.
• Nick Madrigal has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as a favorite against AL West opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (41) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Cam Smith has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last eight games at Tropicana Field.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.590) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank T1st in the league for hits this season (1280).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for steals this season (44).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (596).

Rays vs Astros Prediction 

Houston comes into this matchup after a nice series win over the Phillies, but they have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. The Astros are 38-34 on the road this year, while the Rays are 47-25 at home. Tampa Bay has won three of their last five games and they have allowed three or fewer in four of those five. The Rays are starting Rasmussen, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings, while Ullola will be an opener. Take the Rays -1 here.