Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction 5/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Blue Jays prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 4th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 21-12 this year after they swept the Giants in three games by scores of 3-0, 5-1, and 2-1. In game three, Tampa Bay tied the game at one in the eighth inning and they walked-off in the 10th for the win. The Rays recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Aranda and Vilade, who both had one RBI. Matz allowed four hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Seymour picked up the win. Prior to that series, Tampa Bay won two out of three against the Guardians and all three against the Twins. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .221 opponent batting average, while they have scored 147 runs with a .250 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with seven home runs and 28 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added five home runs and 21 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 2-1 with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 37.0 innings pitched this year. 

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 16-18 this season after they split four games with the Twins by scores of 1-7, 7-3, 11-4, and 3-4. In game four, Toronto cut the deficit to 4-3 in the ninth inning, but stranded some runners on base for the loss. The Blue Jays recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Okamoto, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Yesavage allowed five hits and one earned run over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Fisher allowed three earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Toronto won two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Guardians. 

This season, Toronto has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while they have scored 143 runs with a .251 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Kazuma Okamoto has led the Blue Jays with nine home runs and 22 RBIs, while Jesus Sanchez has added four home runs and 15 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Eric Lauer, who is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 27.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last nine games following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games against the Rays following a road loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in five of their last six games at Tropicana Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won each of their last six Monday games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last nine Monday night games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Blue Jays’ last six night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Blue Jays’ last 12 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 14 home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks T4th in the league in Steals (11) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks T6th in the league in Hits (42) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (43).
• The Rays rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (36).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (227).
• The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for steals this season (12).

Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup playing very well and they have allowed a total of five runs in their last five games. The Rays are 11-4 at home this year, while the Blue Jays are 6-10 on the road. Toronto had some trouble with Minnesota over the weekend and they are starting Lauer, who has allowed 1, 3, 3, and 7 earned runs in his last four outings. The Rays are going with Martinez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Take Tampa Bay to stay hot with a win here.