Rays vs Cubs Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12^th at the Wrigley Field the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 83-63 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 44-28 home record and are 65-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 road victory over the Braves, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Pirates and the Reds next.

The Cubs have a .248 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .425 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 156 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .294 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, adding a team-high 28 home runs.

Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 12-8 record, 2.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 72-74 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 34-38 road record and are 63-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-5 road defeat by the White Sox, and are 1-5 in their last 6 games. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games and are playing the Red Sox and the Blue Jays next.

The Rays have a .252 batting average this season, .313 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 157 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .292 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 106 and in home runs, with 42.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 9-11 record, 4.94 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 12, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season: 12-8      ERA: 2.92
• Home Record: 10-1
• Last 5 against Rays: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Rays have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won 12 of their last 13 day games at Wrigley Field following a road win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games against the Rays.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 9-11      ERA: 4.94
• Road Record: 3-6
• Last 5 against Cubs: –

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Rays’ last six games.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 day games following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Rays’ last 10 games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Rays and Cubs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Rays’ last 12 day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Rays’ last six road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five games as favorites.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in three of his last five home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last three games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks T7th in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games against NL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded a Double in four of the Rays’ last five games as underdogs.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last six games as underdogs.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (40) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (370).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (149).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (181).
• The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Rays vs Cubs Prediction

The Rays are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Cubs, and both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Chicago. Under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Rays vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -165 home favorites. The Rays are coming off a lost series against the White Sox on the road and have been struggling lately. Boyd has been elite for the Cubs this season, and even better at home, with a 2.16 home ERA, and the Cubs have both a better bullpen and a better offense. On top of that, the Rays bats are weaker against left-handed pitching, so this is a solid Cubs spot. Take the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline to take care of business at home in this one.