Rays vs Guardians Prediction 9/5/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays meet Friday in MLB action at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Here’s a Rays vs Guardians Prediction. This article will include a Rays vs Guardians Pick.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 69-70 on the year and play the Royals, White Sox, and Tigers next. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .223 on the season, have a .294 OBP, and a .368 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Cleveland Guardians with 145 hits and 44 RBI, while Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo have combined for 234 hits and 133 RBI.

Gavin Williams gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians, and he is 9-5 with a 3.26 ERA and 143 strikeouts this season. Williams is 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his career against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 71-69 on the year and play the White Sox, Cubs, and Blue Jays next. The Tampa Bay Rays are batting .253 on the season, have a .314 OBP, and a .403 slugging percentage. The Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Yandy Diaz leads the Tampa Bay Rays with 151 hits and 76 RBI while Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe have combined for 255 hits and 176 RBI.

Griffin Jax gets the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is 1-7 with a 4.98 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season. Jax is 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA and 38 strikeouts in his career against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 5, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax      Record this season: 1-7      ERA: 4.98
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Guardians: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last seven games.
• The Guardians have lost eight of their last nine road games.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Rays have won the first inning in five of their last six night games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.26
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-1

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Rays’ last four games.
• The Rays have lost four of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in 12 of their last 14 night games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Rays’ last seven home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians’ last five games as underdogs against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Rays’ last 10 night games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in three of the Guardians’ last four games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded a Double in each of the Rays’ last four games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (39) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 10 Friday night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (36) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (176).
• The Rays are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1015).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.223).

Rays vs Guardians Prediction

Williams has been dealing this season, especially lately, where he’s allowed 21 hits and 9 runs in his last 33.1 innings. The problem is the Guardians continue their inconsistent ways, and they’re hard to back night to night. The Rays have won 7 straight games and are all of a sudden in the thick of the wild card race. Jax hasn’t been good despite the small sample size, but I’m not thrilled to step in front of a team that hasn’t lost a game since August 27. I’ll ride the hot hand and roll with the Rays.