Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 4/16/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, April 16th at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-9 this season, and they have won three of their last five games. Tampa Bay won game one in this series by a score of 16-1 on Monday, but they lost game two by a score of 7-4. In that loss, the Rays cut the deficit to 3-1 in the second inning, but their pitching couldn’t hold up, and they were out of it for most of the game. Tampa Bay recorded seven hits in the game, and they were led by Diaz, Aranda, Misner, and Walls, who all had one RBI in the game. Tampa Bay started Pepiot, who allowed nine hits and six earned runs in the loss, while Bigge allowed one earned run and one hit in a relief inning. 

Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Braves and lost two out of three against the Angels. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 81 runs with a .272 batting average and a .336 on-base percentage this season. Brandon Lowe has led Tampa Bay with three home runs and 11 RBIs, while Jonathan Aranda has also added three home runs and 11 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zack Littell, who is 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 17.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 9-10 this year, and they have lost six of their last nine games. In their game two win on Tuesday night, Boston scored seven of the first nine runs in the game, and they were able to coast until the ninth, when Tampa Bay applied a little pressure. The Red Sox recorded 12 hits in the game, and they were led by Bregman, who went 5-5 with two home runs and four RBIs in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Chapman pitched the final out for the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the White Sox and three out of four against the Blue Jays. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .265 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 85 runs with a .251 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Alex Bregman has led Boston with four home runs and 16 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added three home runs and 12 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sean Newcomb, who is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP over 12.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox

• The Rays have won each of their last 13 games as home favorites following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last five night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last four games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last seven games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Danny Jansen has scored a run in each of his last three appearances in night games.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Taylor Walls has recorded an RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Rays as favorites against the Red Sox.
• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Red Sox’s last five games as underdogs against the Rays.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in three of his last five road appearances against the Rays.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight Wednesday appearances against teams that held a losing record.

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup below .500 on the season, but each side has a chance at a big series win here. The Red Sox finally scored some runs on Tuesday, but their offense has really struggled. Tampa Bay has scored 28 runs in its last three games and will face Newcomb, who has allowed a ton of baserunners so far this year. I really don’t love the pitching matchup here, but I have very little faith in the Boston bats right now. Take the Rays to win.