Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 9/20/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 20th at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 75-79 this season after they lost game one by a score of 11-7 on Friday night. Tampa Bay led 3-2 in the third inning, but allowed the next nine runs for the loss. The Rays recorded eight hits and they committed three errors in the game, while they were led by Pereira, who went 1-5 with one home run and four RBIs in the loss. TB started Rasmussen, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 3.0 innings, while Cleavinger was charged with the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Rays split four games with the Blue Jays and lost two out of three against the Cubs. Tampa Bay has lost seven of their last ten games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 686 runs with a .252 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 29 home runs and 80 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Adrian Houser, who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 113.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 84-70 this year after they won game one by a score of 11-7 last night. Boston managed to score nine runs in the seventh and eighth innings, but did allow four in the bottom of the ninth, before locking up the win. The Red Sox recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Lowe and Duran, who both had two RBIs in the win. Boston started Crochet, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Slaten picked up a hold. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Athletics and two out of three against the Yankees. Boston has alternated wins and losses over their last six games and they are third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 756 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 25 home runs and 94 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kyle Harrison, who is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 26.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox

• The favorites have won each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Rays.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last three games following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Rays have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays

• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Rays’ last eight games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last three Saturday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Adrian Houser has recorded a win in each of his last seven home appearances.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (42) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Rays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against the Rays.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (186).
• The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (307).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1345).

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was able to get a huge win to start this series on Friday night, as they continue to battle in the AL wild card race. The Red Sox are 38-38 on the road this year, while the Rays are 40-39 at home. Tampa Bay is just two games ahead of Baltimore for fourth in the East and they are starting Houser, who has allowed 2, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last three outings. Boston is going with Harrison, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 3.0 innings in his lone outing with Boston this year. I think we are going to see plenty of offense in this game, so take the over here.