Rays vs Royals Prediction 4/29/25 MLB Picks Today

The Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Tuesday in MLB action from George M. Steinbrenner Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Rays vs Royals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rays vs Royals pick.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Royals kicked off their 2025 campaign with a couple of series losses versus the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers before winning two of three versus the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City won another series versus the Minnesota Twins, then lost two of three in the rematch versus the Guardians. The Royals were then swept by the New York Yankees and lost three of four versus the Detroit Tigers. KC got it going with a sweep over the Rockies, though, then won their first two weekend games versus the Astros 2-0 in each.

In the Sunday finale versus Houston, the Royals gave up three runs in the third inning and another pair of runs in the sixth during a 7-3 loss. Jonathan India had two hits with a run and an RBI, and Salvador Perez had two hits of his own as well. Starting pitcher Kris Bubic finished on 5.0 innings with four earned runs from five hits and three walks alongside four strikeouts.

In the starting pitcher slot for Tuesday, the Royals are going with Michael Lorenzen. So far, over five starts, Lorenzen is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 27.2 innings of work. In his career, Lorenzen is 49-47 with a 3.99 ERA in 373 games (98 starts).

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

Over on the Rays’ side, they got wins in their first two series of the year over the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates. After losing to the Texas Rangers in a sweep and falling in a set versus the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay won a series over the Braves. The Rays would lose two of three versus Boston and three of four versus the Yankees in the next two sets, but then beat the Diamondbacks in two of three. Tampa Bay opened their weekend series versus the Padres with a pair of wins, 1-0 and 4-1.

In the Sunday matchup with San Diego, the Rays kept it going with a 4-2 victory on the strength of 10 team hits. Tampa Bay got a solo home run from Taylor Walls in the win, while Chandler Simpson had three hits, two runs, and an RBI. Starting pitcher Zack Littell finished with 5.0 innings, two earned, five hits, one walk, and one K as well.

As a starter for Tuesday, Tampa Bay will go with Taj Bradley. In five starts this year, Bradley is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA over 28.1 frames. Bradley is 15-20 with a 4.78 career ERA in 53 games (51 starts) at the MLB level. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won seven of their last eight night games following a win.
• The Royals have lost each of their last five night games following a loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last five games.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games following a home loss.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against the Royals.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as favorites against AL Central opponents.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The underdogs have won four of the Rays’ last five games.
• The Royals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last six night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Rays’ last seven games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last nine games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Royals’ last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

Rays vs Royals Prediction

I’ll take a stab at the Royals here. You could probably call this one either way, though—a lot is going to depend on what the starters look like. Lorenzen is coming off a nice effort in a win over Colorado on April 24, giving up just one earned run on five hits and four walks in 6.0 frames. In his previous two starts combined, however, Lorenzen was a little shakier with seven earned runs on 14 hits and four walks in 10.1 innings total (both losses). As for Bradley, he’s got one bad start (5.1 innings; six earned in a loss versus the Yankees) mixed with two pretty good starts (12.0 combined innings, four earned for a 1-0 record) in his last trio of appearances.

Kansas City scored just seven runs in three games during the series with the Astros over the weekend, winning two of those. The Royals held Houston scoreless in their first two matchups, so if the pitching staff can find a little bit of that mojo on Tuesday, KC will be set up well.