Rays vs Royals Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Thursday in MLB action from George M. Steinbrenner Field. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Rays vs Royals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rays vs Royals pick.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Royals lost their first two series this season against the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers, ahead of victories in two of three games versus the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City would take a victory in another set over the Minnesota Twins, then lost in two of three during the rematch against Cleveland. KC took a sweep thanks to the New York Yankees, ahead of losses in three of four versus the Detroit Tigers. The Royals would post a sweep over the Rockies, then won their first two outings versus the Astros 2-0 in both before losing 7-3 in the finale. On Tuesday versus the Rays, KC scored two runs in the first two innings and ended up hanging on for the 3-1 win. Starter Michael Lorenzen lasted 6.0 innings with one earned run on four hits and two walks.

In the Wednesday game two, the Royals scored twice in the first inning on the way to a 3-0 shutout win. Vinnie Pasquantino had two RBI and a homer, while Bobby Witt had one RBI, one run, and two hits. Starter Noah Cameron was great on 6.1 clean frames, one hit, five walks, and three strikeouts.

As a starter for Thursday, the Royals are going with Seth Lugo. Over his six starts this year, Lugo is 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 38.0 innings total. Over his career, Lugo is 58-43 with a 3.36 ERA in 340 games (103 starts).

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

Over on the Rays’ side, they won their first two series of the year over the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates. Following a sweep by the Texas Rangers and a set loss against the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay won a series against the Braves. The Rays fell in two of three against the Red Sox and in three of four against the Yankees in the next two sets, but then took out the Diamondbacks in two of three games. The Rays posted a sweep over the San Diego Padres this past weekend to keep it going. On Tuesday versus the Royals, the Rays saw Junior Caminero notch three of the team’s eight hits, including a solo home run.

In the Wednesday matchup, Tampa Bay’s offense was flummoxed, getting out-hit 11-4. Drew Rasmussen managed 5.0 innings with three earned runs on six hits and one walk in the starting pitcher role.

Shane Baz will start for the Rays on Thursday. This year, Baz is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five starts and 29.1 innings. Baz is 10-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 28 career starts at the MLB level. He’s got 153 strikeouts over 149.0 total innings.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last eight day games following a home loss.
• The Royals have lost 24 of their last 30 games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last nine Thursday day games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The road team has won each of the Rays’ last seven games.
• The Rays have lost each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last seven games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Rays’ last nine games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last 12 day games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last four day games against American League opponents.

Rays vs Royals Prediction

I’ll try KC in this one, but it’s a coin flip. Depends on how the starters look, really. Lugo is coming off a very nice victory over the Astros on April 25, posting 8.0 clean frames, three hits, and a walk. In his two starts prior, however, Lugo went 0-2 with seven earned over a period of 13.1 innings combined. He’ll need some help from the bats and the pen in order to bag another W in this one. As for Baz, he gave up five earned runs on four hits and four walks over 3.1 innings in a no-decision versus the Yankees, but came back with a victory over the Padres in his last appearance. That one featured 7.0 clean innings with four hits and a walk.

The Royals were great on the mound behind Cameron. The bullpen posted 2.2 innings with just three hits, no walks, and one K. Overall, it was a pretty nice day for KC, and I like them to keep it going Thursday.