Rays vs Yankees Prediction 4/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, April 11th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 6-7 this season after they won game one in this series by a score of 5-3 on Friday night. Tampa Bay trailed 2-0 in the first inning, but they scored five straight runs and hung on to get the win. The Rays recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Simpson and Diaz, who both had two RBIs. Matz allowed two hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Baker picked up the save in the ninth. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay lost two out of three against the Cubs, but did win two out of three against the Twins before that. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 4.80 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while they have scored 60 runs with a .255 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with three home runs and 12 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added three home runs and 12 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP over 12.0 innings pitched this season. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 8-5 this year after they dropped game one by a score of 5-3 on Friday. New York led 2-0 in the first inning, but they didn’t score again until the eighth, which wasn’t nearly enough to keep pace. The Yankees recorded five hits and they committed one error, while they were led by Rice, Bellinger, and Rosario, who both had one RBI. Gil allowed three hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Headrick allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, New York lost two out of three against the Athletics, but did win two out of three against the Marlins before that. 

This season, New York has a 2.50 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a .213 opponent batting average, while they have scored 57 runs with a .201 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Ben Rice has led the Yankees with four home runs and 12 RBIs, while Aaron Judge has added three home runs and seven RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP over 20.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last nine Saturday games as underdogs against the Yankees.
• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 14 of the Rays’ last 15 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have won the first inning in six of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last six night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight night games following a loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games as favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in three of their last four games against the Rays.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Saturday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Saturday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last five games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Rays’ last 12 night games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Yankees’ last six games at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last five Saturday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Rays.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a three game losing streak and they have scored a total of five runs during that span. The Yankees are 5-2 on the road this year, while the Rays are 2-2 at home. Tampa Bay has won three of their last five games and they have scored 4+ in all three of those wins. The Rays pitched well on Friday, but they have a team ERA of 4.80, which will not be enough to keep pace with Fried and the Yankees. Take New York -1.5 here.