Red Sox vs Astros Prediction 8/12/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, August 12^th at the Daikin Park in the second game of this series, with the Astros having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 67-52 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL West. The Astros have a 36-24 home record and 53-60 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-6 home victory over the Red Sox, and are 5-2 in their last 7 games. They are 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games and are playing the Orioles and the Tigers next.

The Astros have a .259 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .410 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 127 hits, adding a team-high 21 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .314 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 65.

Spencer Arrighetti (R) is the projected starter for the Astros, and he has a 1-2 record, 7.43 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 65-55 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 26-33 road record and are 59-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-7 road defeat by the Astros, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. They are 10-2 to the over in their last 12 games and are playing the Marlins and the Orioles next.

The Red Sox have a .253 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox with 125 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .265 batting average. Trevor Story leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Wilyer Abreu adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Dustin May (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 6-8 record, 4.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won 10 of their last 11 home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Astros following a loss.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Red Sox and Astros.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine night games against the Red Sox at Daikin Park.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 16 games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last four home games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Astros at Daikin Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games at Daikin Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven night games between the Red Sox and Astros at Daikin Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1133).
• The Astros rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.259).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (247).
• The Red Sox rank T3rd in the league for runs scored this season (599).

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Astros, and are 3-1 this season. Both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Houston. Over is 6-4 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -115 home favorites. Both pitchers have been underwhelming to say the least, as they have a combined 12.36 ERA, with May being even weaker on the road for the Red Sox, with a 7.09 road ERA. Arrighetti came back from the IR, and has looked terrible, having given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. I don’t trust either pitcher and I expect them both to get lit up, so I’m looking at a higher-scoring game today. Both teams are 15-3-1 to the over in their last 19 games combined and the first game of this series had 13 total runs. Take the over 8.5 runs in this one.