Red Sox vs Astros Prediction 8/3/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 3rd at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 61-51 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 2-1 and 7-3. In their game two win, Boston had their lead cut to 6-3 in the fifth, but added one more run to seal the victory. The Red Sox recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Story, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed nine hits and three earned runs over 4.1 innings, while Wilson picked up the win and Chapman got the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Twins and two out of three against the Dodgers. Boston has won four games in a row, and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 554 runs with a .253 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 20 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 18 home runs and 68 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 7-2 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 87.2 innings pitched this year. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 62-49 this season after they dropped game two by a score of 7-3 on Saturday afternoon. Houston led 2-0 in the first inning, but only scored one run over the final eight innings in the loss. The Astros recorded 14 hits in the game, and they were led by Walker, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Houston started Gordon, who allowed seven hits and six earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Neris allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Astros won two out of three against the Nationals, but lost all four against the Athletics before that. Houston has lost seven of their last nine games, and they are currently first in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 477 runs with a .258 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Jose Altuve has led Houston with 18 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Yanier Diaz has added 15 home runs and 45 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 134.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Astros will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight home games against the Astros following a home win.
• The Astros have won seven of their last eight day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games against the Astros following a home win.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Astros’ last five games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six day games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL opponents.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five home appearances against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Framber Valdez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 road appearances against AL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last nine Sunday appearances in day games.

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction

Boston comes into this contest playing some of the best baseball in the MLB over the last week, and they finally passed the Yankees in the AL East standings. The Red Sox are 36-21 at home this year, while the Astros are 27-25 on the road. Houston is not playing very well right now, but they are starting Valdez, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Boston is going with Giolito, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings, but did allow nine earned runs in the other two starts in that span. Houston is 13-1 in Valdez’s last 14 starts, so I will take the Astros here.