Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction 9/25/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 25^th at the Rogers Centre in the third game of this series, with the Red Sox having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 90-68 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL East. They have a 50-27 home record, and are 85-68 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-7 home defeat by the Red Sox, and are 1-6 in their last 7 games. They are playing the Rays next.

The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .424 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the Blue Jays with 181 hits, adding a team-high 94 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .311 batting average, while George Springer adds a team-high 30 home runs.

Louis Varland (R) will take the mound for the Blue Jays, and he has a 4-3 record, 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 87-71 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 41-39 road record and are 76-78 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-3 road victory over the Rays, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Tigers next.

The Red Sox have a .255 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .423 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 160 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .267 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 95, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

Brayan Bello (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 11-8 record, 3.34 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: September 25, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland      Record this season: 4-3      ERA: 3.10
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last 11 Thursday night games.
• The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 10 Thursday night road games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line each of their last nine Thursday games against teams that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brayan Bello      Record this season: 11-8      ERA: 3.34
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-2

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.392) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight road games against AL East opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1425).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (316).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1386).

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction

The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Blue Jays, and are 3-2 in their last 5 visits in Toronto.

In this Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Blue Jays are coming as -135 home favorites. The Jays have clinched their playoff spot, and they are not interested in winning since. On the flip side, the Red Sox hold the #2 Wild Card spot in the AL, and are putting Bello on the mound, who has been excellent this season, and even better on the road, with a 3.02 road ERA. The Jays are going for a bullpen game today, and they have a lower bullpen ERA than Boston, so this is a Red Sox spot once again.