Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction 8/16/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 16th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 67-56 this year after they won game one in this series by a score of 2-1 on Friday. Boston trailed 1-0 for a good portion of the game, but they tied the game in the sixth and won in the bottom of the ninth. The Red Sox recorded just three hits in the game and they were led by Bregman and Story, who both had one RBI in the win. Boston started Giolito, who allowed seven hits and one earned run over 6.1 innings, while Chapman picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Astros and two out of three against the Padres. Boston has lost four of their last six games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 616 runs with a .253 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 18 home runs and 76 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 8-6 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 121.2 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 58-64 this season after they lost game one to start this series on Friday night. Miami took a 1-0 lead in the third inning, but failed to score in the final six innings in the loss. The Marlins recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Stowers, who went 2-3 with one RBI in the loss. Miami started Alcantara, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Simpson picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Guardians and four out of five against the Braves. Miami has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.54 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 526 runs with a .252 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 17 home runs and 55 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Cal Quantrill, who is 4-9 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 106.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Marlins

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against the Red Sox following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Marlins will beat the Red Sox

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last 12 day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins’ last five road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Marlins’ last six games against American League opponents.

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction 

Boston was able to get the low scoring win to open this series on Friday night, as they continue to stay ahead of the Yankees in the East. The Red Sox are 40-22 at home this season, while the Marlins are 30-33 on the road. Miami has hit another rough patch in their season and they are starting Quantrill, who has been pretty good recently, but did allow seven earned runs two starts ago. The Red Sox are going with Bello, who has allowed 5, 0, 1, 3, and 3 earned runs in his last five outings. I actually think we will see another low scoring game, as both starters have been solid, so I am taking the under here.