Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction 8/17/25 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action at Fenway Park. Here’s a Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction. This article will include a Red Sox vs Marlins Pick.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 58-65 on the year and play the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Braves next. The Miami Marlins are batting .252 on the season, have a .315 OBP, and a .397 slugging percentage. The Miami Marlins pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Miami Marlins with 133 hits and 34 RBI, while Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez have combined for 212 hits and 129 RBI.

Janson Junk gets the ball for the Miami Marlins, and he is 6-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. This will be Junk’s first career game against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 68-56 on the year and play the Orioles, Yankees, and Orioles next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .253 on the season, have a .325 OBP, and a .428 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Jarren Duran leads the Boston Red Sox with 127 hits and 66 RBI while Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela have combined for 226 hits and 131 RBI.

Garrett Crochet gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 13-5 with a 2.48 ERA and 188 strikeouts this season. Crochet is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 7 strikeouts in his career against the Miami Marlins.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost 16 of their last 17 games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against the Red Sox following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in five of their last six home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit a home run in four of the Red Sox’s last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Garrett Crochet ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (13) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Xavier Edwards ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.306) this season.

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

As I’ve said before, the Marlins haven’t been the same team since sweeping the Yankees. Junk is also having a rough August, where he’s allowed 17 hits and 12 runs in 15 innings. Crochet looks like a CY Young candidate with his 2.48 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and he has a 2.43 ERA and .218 allowed batting average in 70.1 home innings. The Red Sox have won 10 of Crochet’s last 12 starts. I have to keep fading the Marlins, and I’ll lay the RL to shave down the price.