Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction 8/25/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, August 25^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 67-65 record this season and sit in third place in the NL East. They have a 41-26 home record and are coming off a 2-4 home loss against the Boston Red Sox. They will face the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals next.

The Miami Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .327 OBP, and .401 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the Marlins’ best hitter with a .307 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 59. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 19 home runs.

Tyler Phillips (RHP) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, holding a 3-6 record, 3.67 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 72-59 record this season and sit in third place in the AL East. They have a 38-27 road record and are coming off a 4-2 road win against the Miami Marlins. They will face the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .251 batting average this season, .324 OBP, and .407 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’ best hitter with a .289 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 78, also adding a team-high 26 home runs.

Payton Tolle (LHP) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, holding an 8-6 record, 3.08 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: August 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Tuesday home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle      Record this season: 8-6      ERA: 3.08
• Road Record: 5-3
• Last 5 against Marlins: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 17 night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last five games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last three games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Marlins’ last 11 games as underdogs.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Payton Tolle’s last four road appearances as a starter.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 11 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (157) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Mickey Gasper has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight road games against NL opponents.
• Payton Tolle has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
• Willson Contreras ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.390) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (28).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (132).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (241).
• The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (126).

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Marlins and have won their last four visits in Miami.

In this Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -160 road favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as both starters have very good numbers this season, with a combined 6.75 ERA. Their home/away splits have been even better, as Tolle has been better on the road with a 2.52 ERA and Phillips better at home with a 2.14 ERA. Boston has the best bullpen in baseball and yesterday’s game had just six total runs. Take the under 7.5 runs in this one.