Red Sox vs Mets Prediction 5/21/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, May 21, at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (29-20, 12-15 Away) are on a three-game losing skid after falling to the Red Sox in the first two games of the current series. Prior to it, the Mets lost to the Yankees and beat the Pirates. In Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat in Boston, Clay Holmes took the loss after allowing two runs on four hits with five strikeouts and three walks in 6.0 innings.

This season, the Mets average 4.44 runs per game (12th in the MLB) on a .247/.329/.412 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 2.87 ERA (1st) and 1.26 WHIP (15th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .294 batting average, nine home runs, and 37 RBI this season.

Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Wednesday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 3-3 record in nine starts this year with a 3.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 43.1 innings.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox (25-25, 14-11 Home) were swept by the Detroit Tigers and lost the series to the Atlanta Braves before defeating the Mets in the opening two games of the current series. In last night’s 2-0 victory, Walker Buehler pitched for 2.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing no hits with four strikeouts and two walks. Garrett Whitlock was credited with the win.

This year, the Red Sox average 4.84 runs per game (7th in the MLB) on a .254/.325/.423 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Red Sox’s staff has a 4.09 ERA (17th) and 1.34 WHIP (22nd). Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox with a .286 batting average, ten home runs, and 39 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Garrett Crochet, who is 4-3 in ten starts this season, with a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 63.0 innings.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Mets

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have lost each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Mets following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Mets at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against the Mets.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Mets’ last 10 games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Mets and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mets’ last nine games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Mets and Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (438).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (449).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (161).
• The Mets rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (11).

Red Sox vs Mets Prediction

The Red Sox won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last seven. I am backing the Red Sox to win on Wednesday and sweep the series, mainly because of the pitching matchup and Garrett Crochet, who allowed six runs in his last four starts, three of which were quality starts. Crochet surrendered more than two runs in a game just once this season. Tylor Megill, on the other hand, allowed 3+ runs in each of his last four starts, and 15 runs in total in those games. Back the Red Sox.