Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction 7/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 1st at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 37-47 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 6-3 and 1-8. In game two, Boston led 1-0 in the first inning, but they went scoreless over the last eight innings in the loss. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Seigler, who went 1-4 with one run. Early allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Weissert picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Boston swept the Yankees in four games, but lost two out of three against the Rockies before that. 

This season, Boston has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while they have scored 335 runs with a .243 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 18 home runs and 53 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 12 home runs and 39 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 4-5 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 71.1 innings pitched this season. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 44-43 this year after they won game two by a score of 8-1 last night. Washington tied the game in the fifth inning and they took the lead in the seventh for the win. The Nationals recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Ruiz, who went 2-3 with three RBIs. Cavalli allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Kent threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to this series, Washington won two out of three against the Orioles, but lost three out of four against the Phillies before that. 

This season, Washington has a 4.66 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while they have scored 460 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. CJ Abrams has led the Nationals with 18 home runs and 60 RBIs, while James Wood has added 21 home runs and 52 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Andrew Alvarez, who is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 36.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last seven Wednesday road games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday road games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last four games against the Nationals.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against the Nationals.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games following a home loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Nationals’ last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Nationals’ last six day games.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in four of his last six home appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Payton Tolle has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in day games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Andrew Alvarez has recorded five strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL East opponents.
• Luis Garcia has hit at least one home run in five of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.

Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction

Boston had their winning streak snapped on Tuesday night, but they have won five of their last six games. The Red Sox are 17-26 at home this year, while the Nationals are 27-18 on the road. Washington has won three of their last four games and they have scored 18 runs in those three wins. The Nationals are starting Alvarez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Tolle has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last four outings. Alvarez has been decent, but he doesn’t pitch deep into games and the Washington bullpen is a mess. Take the Red Sox here.