Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction 9/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 4^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 69-72 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 34-35 home record and are coming off a 5-6 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Guardians and the Blue Jays next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .235 batting average this season, .317 OBP, and .396 slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the Orioles’ best hitter with a .269 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 94, adding a team-high 33 home runs.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, with a 5-14 record, 4.01 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 76-65 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 41-31 road record and are coming off a 6-5 road win against the Orioles. They will face the Angels and the Royals next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .250 batting average this season, .323 OBP, and .408 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’ best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 79, adding a team-high 26 home runs.

Ranger Suarez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, with a 5-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: September 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 5-14      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 3-6
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 2-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a road win.
• The Orioles have won five of their last seven games as home underdogs against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Friday night games as road favorites.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against AL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 3.64
• Road Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-2

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 road games against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last six home games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last 11 Friday games against AL opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as home underdogs following a loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home night games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 Friday games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Red Sox and Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Orioles.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Ranger Suarez’s last four road appearances as a starter.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against the Red Sox.
• Shane Baz has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last 15 games as underdogs.
• Shane Baz has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents .
• Pete Alonso ranks 8th in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Roman Anthony has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1301).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (525).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (259).
• The Red Sox are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Orioles and have won their last three visits in Baltimore.

In this Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -115 road favorites. I like the Orioles in a bounce-back spot as home dogs in this matchup. Suarez has been shaky at best, alternating quality starts with bad games, while Baz has been better at home with a 3.82 ERA for the Orioles. On top of that, Baltimore has been dominating lefties lately, with a .287 batting average and 8.8 runs per game in their last 10, while Boston’s bullpen has been terrible in that span, with a 6.53 ERA. Take the Orioles at home for plus money.