Red Sox vs Padres Prediction 8/8/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 8^th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 64-51 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 36-19 home record, and are 47-65 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 3-2 road victory over the Dbacks, and are 9-2 in their last 11 games. They are playing the Dodgers and the Giants next.

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 133 hits and team-high .300 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 72, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Nick Pivetta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 11-3 record, 2.73 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 64-52 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 25-30 road record and are 55-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-7 home defeat by the Royals which snapped their previous seven-game winning streak. They are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games and are playing the Marlins and the Astros next.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .430 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox with 121 hits, while Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s best hitter, with a .264 batting average. Trevor Story leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Wilyer Abreu adds a team-high 20 home runs.

Walker Buehler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 6-6 record, 5.74 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won each of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in five of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 13 of their last 14 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a road win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games at Petco Park against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against the Padres at Petco Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Padres’ last 10 games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (856).
• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (98).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (239).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1010).

Red Sox vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Red Sox, but the Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings in San Diego. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -185 home favorites. Even though both teams have exactly 64 wins this season, the Padres are rightfully favored, as they have been one of the best home teams in the league, while the Red Sox are below average on the road.

I’m on the Padres in this one. Pivetta has been excellent this season for the Padres and almost unhittable at home, with a 1.99 home ERA. On the flip side, Buehler has been terrible on the road with a 7.44 road ERA, and the Padres have the best bullpen in the league. The Padres are better against righties, while the Red Sox are weaker right-handed pitching. Take the San Diego Padres to get the job done in this one.