Red Sox vs Padres Prediction 8/10/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 10^th at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 65-52 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 37-20 home record, and are 49-65 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 5-4 home victory over the Red Sox, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Dodgers and the Giants next.

The Padres have a .250 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 134 hits and team-high .297 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 72, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Dylan Cease (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 4-10 record, 4.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 65-53 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 26-31 road record and are 57-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-5 road defeat by the Padres, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games and are playing the Marlins and the Astros next.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .430 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox with 124 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .266 batting average. Trevor Story leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Wilyer Abreu adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Brayan Bello (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has an 8-5 record, 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight day games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight day games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 13 of their last 16 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine day games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have lost five of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Padres’ last 12 day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Red Sox’s last 13 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Padres’ last nine day games at Petco Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (875).
• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (99).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (244).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1029).

Red Sox vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Red Sox, but the Red Sox are 6-3 in their last 9 meetings in San Diego. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -150 home favorites. Both teams have exactly 65 wins this season, but the Padres have been one of the best home teams in the league, while the Red Sox are below average on the road. But the price is too high for the Padres, as Bello has been better than Cease throughout the season, and in far better form, having just one earned run in his last two starts. The Red Sox also have a better offense, so I like them as a road dog in this spot.