Red Sox vs Padres Prediction 4/4/26 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox meet Saturday in MLB action at Fenway Park. Here’s a Red Sox vs. Padres Prediction. This article will include a Red Sox vs. Padres Pick.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 2-5 on the year and play the Pirates and Rockies next. The San Diego Padres are batting. 192 on the season, have a .264 OBP, and have a .290 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Ramon Laureano leads the San Diego Padres with 7 hits and 4 RBI, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have combined for 10 hits and 2 RBI.

Randy Vasquez gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. Vasquez is 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 4 strikeouts in his career against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 2-5 on the year and play the Brewers and Cardinals next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .219 on the season, have a .297 OBP, and have a .373 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu leads the Boston Red Sox with 11 hits and 6 RBI, while Ramon Anthony and Marcelo Mayar have combined for 11 hits and 4 RBI.

Connelly Early gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 0-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. This will be Early’s first career game against the San Diego Padres.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last nine games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has won each of the Red Sox’s last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last six games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday day road games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
• The Padres have won seven of their last nine games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last five home games has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six Saturday day games against National League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Wilyer Abreu has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four day games.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Wilyer Abreu ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (3) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Randy Vasquez ranks T9th in the league for Wins (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank T28th in the league for runs scored this season (22).
• The Red Sox rank T28th in the league for RBIs this season (21).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (21).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (43).

Red Sox vs Padres Prediction

Two teams that should be better than they’ve been out of the gate. The Red Sox are getting the benefit of the doubt because they’re at home but the value is with the Padres and the plus money. Vasquez was solid in his season debut and he’s a trustworthy veteran arm. Early is still early in his career with just five career starts and 24.2 innings. I like my pitchers with a larger sample size. Either way, these are two teams riding the struggle bus. If forced to pick, I want more bang for my buck. Give me the Padres.