Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction 5/7/25 MLB Picks Today

The Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox meet Wednesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game series this week. Here’s a Red Sox vs Rangers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Rangers pick.

Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Rangers kicked off their campaign this year by winning a series over the Red Sox, then beat the Cincinnati Reds in two of three, and managed a sweep over the Tampa Bay Rays. Following losses in sets to the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners, the Rangers took a sweep over the Los Angeles Angels. The defeats to the Oakland Athletics (twice) and San Francisco Giants came over the next three, then defeats at the hands of Seattle on Friday and Saturday. Texas managed to save some face with an 8-1 win Sunday that stopped the potential sweep, however.

In Tuesday’s matchup versus the Red Sox, the Rangers posted five runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 6-1 victory. Josh Smith came away with three hits and an RBI, while Adolis Garcia did as well. Starter Nathan Eovaldi lasted 6.0 innings with one earned run on five hits and a walk alongside seven Ks.

In the starter slot for Wednesday, the Rangers are going with Tyler Mahle. This year, Mahle is 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA in seven starts. Mahle has 37.2 innings total. Over his career, Mahle is 36-43 with a 4.15 ERA in 133 games (132 starts) overall.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox side, they took out the Baltimore Orioles following their opening series defeat versus Texas. Following a sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston fell in the next two series versus the Blue Jays and White Sox. The Red Sox took out Tampa Bay and the White Sox in their next pair of sets, then fell to the Mariners. After a series win over Cleveland and a series loss to Toronto, Boston split their first two weekend matchups with the Twins. In Sunday’s game, the Red Sox took a tough loss, 5-4.

On Tuesday, Boston coughed up a whopping 16 hits in their defeat. Kristian Campbell accounted for the lone RBI. Lucas Giolito bagged 3.2 innings in the start with six earned on 10 hits and a walk during a tough outing.
It’ll be Tanner Houck in the starter role for the Sox on Tuesday. This year, Houck is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in seven starts (36.2 innings). Houck is 24-31 with a 3.77 ERA in 111 career games (78 starts) at the MLB level.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rangers have lost each of their last 11 road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six home games against the Rangers following a loss.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a road win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last nine night games against the Rangers following a loss.
• The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rangers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rangers have lost the first inning in six of their last seven road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Rangers have won each of their last nine night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against AL East opponents.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in each of their last three games against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rangers’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last five games between the Rangers and Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six night games at Fenway Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rangers’ last eight games as road underdogs.

Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction

I’ll stick with the Rangers. Both starters could use some help from the bats in this one, though. Mahle is just 0-1 in his last three starts but hasn’t pitched badly. In that trio, he’s got 18.0 combined innings with three earned on 15 hits and five walks total. As for Houck, he’s got seven earned runs over his last three starts in 18.0 total frames. Houck has given up 15 hits and three walks in that time. If both guys are on point here, we’ll have a good starter matchup.

Texas jumped all over Giolito in the Tuesday victory, utilizing a big fourth inning to carry the team. I’d like to see the offense spread out over a handful of frames here, but overall, the Rangers should be in decent shape if all goes well on the mound.