Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 9/19/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 19^th at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 75-78 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 40-38 home record and are 66-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-0 home victory over the Blue Jays, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Orioles and the Blue Jays next.

The Rays have a .252 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 167 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .297 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 108 and in home runs, with 44.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 10-5 record, 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 83-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 37-38 road record and are 72-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-5 home defeat by the A’s, but are 2-5 in their last 7 games. They are 6-2-1 to the under in their last 9 games and are playing the Tigers and the Blue Jays next.

The Red Sox have a .253 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .423 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 154 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .268 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 93, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

Garrett Crochet (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 16-5 record, 2.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 19, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 10-5      ERA: 2.74
• Home Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The underdogs have won six of the Rays’ last seven games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last seven games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have won the first inning in six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Friday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Garrett Crochet      Record this season: 16-5      ERA: 2.63
• Road Record: 11-2
• Last 5 against Rays: 1-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last six games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Red Sox’s last six games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine Friday night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last seven road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Rays’ last seven games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Rays’ last 11 night games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games against American League opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Rays as home underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (42) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in three of his last five road appearances against the Rays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three road games.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites.
• Garrett Crochet ranks 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (240) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (186).
• The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (304).
• The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction

The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 head-to-head meetings against the Rays, and are 2-1 in their last 3 visits in Tampa Bay. Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -130 road favorites. Crochet faces off with Rasmussen in this pitcher’s duel as both have been excellent this season and have even better home/away splits. Rasmussen has a 2.60 home ERA and Crochet a 2.29 road ERA. Boston has the second-bet bullpen ERA in baseball, while Tampa has been terrible against lefties, with their batting average dropping from .252 to .235 against left-handed pitching, scoring just 3.6 runs per game. I expect Crochet to be unhittable in this one, so take the Red Sox to win on the road.