Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 5/9/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 9th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 17-22 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 4-8 and 2-0. In game two, Boston scored once in the third inning and once in the fourth, which was enough for the shutout win. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Abreu and Rafaela, who both had a home run. Early allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the save. Prior to this series, Boston swept the Tigers in three games, but lost two out of three against the Astros before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while they have scored 155 runs with a .234 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with eight home runs and 23 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added four home runs and 18 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP over 17.2 innings pitched this season. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 25-13 this year after they lost game two by a score of 2-0 on Friday night. Tampa Bay pitched very well all night, but they had zero offense in the shutout loss. The Rays recorded four hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Fortes, who went 2-3. Scholtens allowed two hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Englert allowed two hits and zero earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay swept the Blue Jays in three games and the Giants in three games. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.51 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .219 opponent batting average, while they have scored 167 runs with a .254 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added five home runs and 23 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 42.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last 10 day games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The home team has won eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road day games.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against AL East opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Rays and Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last five day games.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 16 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.353).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (29).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
• The Rays rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (40).

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 

Boston was able to get the low scoring win on Friday night to even this series and they have won four of their last five games. The Red Sox are 7-11 at home this year, while the Rays are 11-9 on the road. Tampa Bay had their winning streak snapped last night, but they have allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Rays are starting Martinez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Tolle has allowed four earned runs over 17.2 innings. This is a great pitching matchup, but I can’t fade Martinez right now. Take the Rays here.