Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 9/20/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, September 20^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 94-60 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 54-26 home record and are coming off a 2-1 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Yankees and the Phillies next.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .259 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 97, adding a team-high 41 home runs.

Griffin Jax (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 7-10 record, 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 84-71 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 46-34 away record and are coming off a 2-1 road win against the Rays. They will face the Guardians and the Cubs next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .246 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 81, adding a team-high 27 home runs.

Patrick Sandoval (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-6 record, 4.99 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 20, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax      Record this season: 7-10      ERA: 3.80
• Home Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost 14 of their last 15 games at Tropicana Field following a loss.
• The home team has won eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a loss.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 games at Tropicana Field against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval      Record this season: 1-6      ERA: 4.99
• Road Record: 0-4
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-2

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won nine of the Red Sox’s last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Red Sox’s last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against the Rays.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the last nine day games between the Red Sox and Rays.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Patrick Sandoval’s last four appearances as a starter.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Aranda has hit at least one home run in each of the Rays’ last two day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents.
• Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 10 games against the Red Sox.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (45) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Sandoval has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against the Rays.
• Jahmai Jones has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Rays.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.259).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1078).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (276).
• The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (149).

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Rays but are 1-4 in their last 5 visits in Tampa.

In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -150 home favorites. I like the Rays at home in this one, as Griffin Jax has been the better pitching option in this matchup. He has been red-hot, with one earned run or less in five of his last six starts, while on the other hand, Patrick Sandoval has a 1.79 WHIP this season and has given up 11 runs in his last three starts. The Rays have been red-hot against lefties in their last 5 games and have a 1.40 bullpen ERA, while the Red Sox average just 1.8 runs against righties in that span. Take the Rays to win at home.