Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction 4/17/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 17th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 7-11 this year after they lost two out of three against the Twins by scores of 6-13, 0-6, and 9-5. In game three, Boston trailed 1-0 after the first inning, but they scored the next nine runs to pull away with the win. The Red Sox recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Story, who went 2-4 with one home run and five RBIs. Early allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Watson allowed four earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Boston won two out of three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Brewers. 

This season, Boston has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while they have scored 77 runs with a .239 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Wilson Contreras has led the Red Sox with three home runs and 11 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added two home runs and 17 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Ranger Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 14.1 innings pitched this year. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 10-9 this season after they swept the Royals in three games by scores of 2-1, 2-1, and 10-9. In game three, Detroit trailed 9-7 in the ninth inning, but they scored three runs in the bottom for the ninth for the walk-off win. The Tigers recorded 14 hits in the game and they were led by Dingler and Greene, who both had two RBIs. Montero allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Seabold picked up the win in relief. Prior to that series, Detroit won all three against the Marlins, but lost all four against the Twins before that. 

This season, Detroit has a 3.66 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while they have scored 84 runs with a .245 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Dillon Dingler has led the Tigers with four home runs and 14 RBIs, while Riley Greene has added one home run and 12 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Casey Mize, who is 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 16.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The home team has won each of the Tigers’ last 10 games.
• The Tigers have lost each of their last eight road games.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight road games.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Tigers following a road win.
• The Tigers have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Fenway Park.
• The Tigers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against American League opponents.

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Tigers have won each of their last six games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Tigers and Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Tigers’ last four games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Tigers’ last 13 games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 17 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Wilyer Abreu ranks T6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.333) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Casey Mize has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Kerry Carpenter has hit at least one home run in three of his last seven appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against the Red Sox.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (12).
• The Red Sox rank 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (25).
• The Tigers rank T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (12).
• The Tigers rank T27th in the league for steals this season (7).

Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction 

Detroit comes into this matchup on a six game winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five, but all of those wins did come at home. The Tigers are 2-8 on the road this year, while the Red Sox are 3-3 at home. Boston just dropped two out of three against the Twins and they have allowed 5+ runs in three straight. The Red Sox are starting Suarez, who has allowed eight earned runs and 16 hits over 14.1 innings, while Mize has allowed seven earned runs and 17 hits over 16.0 innings. I don’t think either starter is in great form to start the season and Boston is playing in very high scoring games, so I like the over here.