Red Sox vs Twins Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Twins prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 4th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 18-17 this year after they lost game two by a score of 4-3 on Saturday. Boston led 1-0 in the third inning, but they allowed the next four runs and fell just short in their late comeback attempt for the loss. The Red Sox recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Devers, who went 3-5 with two RBIs in the loss. Boston started Dobbins, who allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Bernardino, Weissert, and Wilson combined to pitch 3.1 scoreless innings. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Blue Jays, but did win two out of three against the Guardians. Boston has lost three of their last four games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 175 runs with a .256 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this season. Alex Bregman has led Boston with eight home runs and 27 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added five home runs and 16 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 44.0 innings pitched this year. 

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 14-20 this season and they have split the first two games in this series by scores of 1-6 and 4-3. In their game two win, the Twins were able to score four consecutive runs in the fourth/sixth inning to grab the close victory. The Twins recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Clemens, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Minnesota started Ober, who allowed seven hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings in the win, while Duran picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Twins lost three out of four against the Guardians, but did sweep the Angels in three games before that. Minnesota has lost four of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the AL Central standings. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 128 runs with a .235 batting average and a .306 on base percentage this season. Byron Buxton has led Minnesota with six home runs and 17 RBIs, while Harrison Bader has added three home runs and 13 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Chris Paddack, who is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 27.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Twins

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 home games against the Twins following a home loss.
• The Twins have lost each of their last nine Sunday games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against the Twins following a home loss.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Sunday games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last eight day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Red Sox’s last five home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Twins’ last 13 day games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five day games.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games against AL opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Sunday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Chris Paddack has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Twins as underdogs.
• Ty France has scored at least one run in six of the Twins’ last seven games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
• Ryan Jeffers has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Willi Castro has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Twins as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Christian Vazquez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances at Fenway Park.
• Harrison Bader has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Red Sox vs Twins Prediction 

Minnesota was able to snap their losing streak with a much needed win on Saturday, but they are just 5-14 on the road this year. The Twins have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last five games and will go up against Crochet, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. On the other side, Boston is dealing with some injuries, but should be able to generate offense against Paddack. Take the Red Sox -1.5 here.