Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet on Friday in MLB action from Fenway Park. Here’s a Red Sox vs Yankees prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Yankees vs Red Sox pick.

Another Strong Win for the Yankees

The Yankees are in a good spot to make the playoffs, and on Thursday, the offense was strong, The Yankees scored nine runs, and that was enough to secure the win. The Yankees had scored nine runs by the time the 4th inning was over. Aaron Judge had a couple of good at bats and hit two home runs. Cam Schlitter got the start and he went six innings giving up five hits and one run. Ryan Yarbough came out of the bullpen and he went three innings giving up three hits and two runs. That was the only real negative to come out of the game. 

The Yankees are averaging 5.12 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.35 runs per game. The offense is ranked 1st while the pitching is ranked 16th. They have a run differential of 0.86 which is 2nd in the league. Getting the start for the Yankees will be Luis Gil who sits with a 3-1 record and an ERA of 3.31. Against the Toronto Blue Jays in his last start he went six innings giving up three hits and one run. 

Why the Yankees Will Beat the Red Sox

• The Yankees have won eight of their last 10 road games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games as road favorites.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

How Do the Red Sox Bounce Back?

The Red Sox faced off against the Athletics in the last game on Wednesday, and they couldn’t get the job done. The Red Sox scored four runs, while the pitching gave up five runs, and that led to the defeat. Payton Tolle got the start and he went two innings giving up three hits and two runs. The top offensive player was Nate Eaton and he finished with two hits and one RBI. Before that lost, the Red Sox had won three games in a row. 

The Red Sox are averaging 4.94 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.21 runs per game. The offense is ranked 5th while the pitching is ranked 12th. Trevor Story has hit 24 home runs and driven in 91 RBIs so far this season. Getting the start for the Red Sox will be Lucas Giolito and he sits with  10-3 record and an ERA of 3.38. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he went five innings giving up seven hits and four runs. 

Why the Red Sox Will Beat the Yankees

• The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Yankees following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home underdogs.

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction

Give me the Yankees to pick up the victory in the first game of the series. Gil has been impressive this season and in his last start he gave up only three hits and one run. Giolito on the other hand gave up four runs in his last start and he’s going to have some major issues here. The Yankees offense has all kinds of confidence after the way they played on Thursday with their offense and I expect a couple of home runs are going to be the difference here in this game. Back the Yankees on the money line to cash.