Reds vs Cubs Prediction 5/7/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, May 7^th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 25-12 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 17-5 home record and are coming off a 7-6 win at home against the Reds. They will face the Rangers and the Braves next.

The Cubs have a .259 batting average this season, .352 OBP and .429 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .290 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 27. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 9 home runs.

Shota Imanaga (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-2 record, 2.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-17 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 10-9 away record and are coming off a 6-7 loss on the road against the Cubs. They will face the Astros and the Nationals next.

The Reds have a .219 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .385 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 28. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 9 home runs.

Rhett Lowder (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 3-2 record, 5.09 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: May 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shota Imanaga      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 2.40
• Home Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 14 home games.
• The Reds have lost each of their last eight games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five day games following a home win.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Rhett Lowder      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 5.09
• Road Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six day games after going to extra innings.
• The Cubs have lost eight of their last nine Thursday day games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games following a loss.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Cubs.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the last 12 games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Reds’ last 11 games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Rhett Lowder’s last six appearances as a starter.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the last 10 day games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in six of his last 13 appearances after playing the previous day.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his four previous home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Thursday day appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 11 road games.
• JJ Bleday has hit at least one home run in five of his last nine appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.352).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (172).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (270).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.219).

Reds vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs have won their last three meetings against the Reds, all in this series and have won their last four meetings in Chicago.

In this Reds vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -200 home favorites. The Cubs have been the hottest team in baseball with eight consecutive wins and are facing a struggling Reds team that has lost six straight. The Cubs have the pitching advantage as Imanaga goes up against a struggling Rhett Lowder who was torched in his last start with 8 earned runs, and they also have the second-best offense in baseball and a better bullpen. Take the Cubbies to keep rolling in this one and get away with another win.