Reds vs Guardians Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 16th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 21-24 this year after they lost two out of three against the White Sox by scores of 1-5, 2-4, and 7-1. In their game three win, Cincinnati scored the first seven runs in the game and they were able to coast to the easy win. The Reds recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Benson, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Martinez, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Rogers allowed two hits and one earned in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Astros and three out of four against the Braves. Cincinnati has lost five of their last seven games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .222 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 208 runs with a .239 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with eight home runs and 31 RBIs, while Austin Hays has added five home runs and 15 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Brady Singer, who is 4-2 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 41.2 innings pitched this year. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 25-18 this season after they won two out of three against Milwaukee by scores of 5-0, 2-0, and 5-9. In their game three win, Cleveland led 2-1 in the fourth inning, but they allowed the next six runs in the game and fell just short in their comeback attempt. The Guardians recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Ramirez, who went 1-3 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Cleveland started Williams, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Herrin, Junis, Cantillo, and Kent all allowed at least one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Phillies, but did win two out of three against the Nationals before that. Cleveland has lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .258 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 176 runs with a .233 batting average and a .308 on base percentage this season. Kyle Manzardo has led Cleveland with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs, while Jose Ramirez has added eight home runs and 22 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 3-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 45.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Reds

• The Reds have lost each of their last 11 home games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have won each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 home games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against the Reds.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Guardians’ last nine games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the last nine games between the Guardians and Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Guardians’ last nine night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine night games between the Guardians and Reds at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Brady Singer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Friday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Guardians.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in seven of the Reds’ last eight home games.
• Jeimer Candelario has hit at least one home run in two of his last three home appearances against the Guardians.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds’ last six games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Guardians as road favorites.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 14 appearances with the Guardians as road favorites.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded an RBI in each of the Guardians’ last four games as road favorites against the Reds.
• Steven Kwan has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.

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Reds vs Guardians Prediction 

Cincinnati was able to avoid the sweep against the White Sox with their win on Thursday afternoon, but they have really struggled over the last few weeks and are just 10-12 at home. Cleveland is 11-10 on the road and their pitching staff has been great in three of their last four games. The Guardians are starting Bibee, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. The Reds are starting Singer, who has allowed 11 earned runs and 16 hits over his last 8.1 innings. Take Bibee and the Guardians here.