Reds vs Nationals Prediction 5/2/25 MLB Picks Today

The Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds meet Friday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Reds vs Nationals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Nationals pick.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Nationals lost their first couple of series this year, falling in two of three versus the Philadelphia Phillies and in a sweep versus the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would get a couple of series wins over the Diamondbacks and Dodgers next, but then fall in two more series versus the Marlins and Pirates from there. Following a couple of set wins versus the Rockies and Orioles, the Nationals posted a split in four games against the New York Mets. On Tuesday in their opener versus the Phillies, Washington blew a late lead and ended up losing a tough one, 7-6. In the Wednesday game two, the Nationals were out-hit 10-5 in a 7-2 loss. Starter Jake Irvin had a rough outing on 6.0 innings, six earned runs, eight hits, and three walks.

On Thursday in their series finale, the Nationals took a 4-2 victory. Starter Brad Lord lasted 5.0 innings with two earned runs on six hits and a walk.

As a starter for the Friday game, Washington is sending out Mitchell Parker. In his 2025 campaign so far, Parker is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in six starts across 37.1 innings. In his career, Parker is 10-11 with a 3.97 ERA in 35 starts total.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Over on the Reds’ side, they started off the 2025 campaign by falling in three straight series versus the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati finally would win a set in their rematch with the Giants, then took a sweep over the Pirates. After falling in a series against the Mariners, the Reds beat the Orioles in a set, then lost one versus the Marlins in two of three games. Cincinnati dispatched the Rockies in a sweep last weekend, then beat the Cardinals on Monday. In Tuesday’s matchup, the Reds got rained out, so that matchup was pushed to a doubleheader the next day. In those Wednesday games, Cincinnati couldn’t get much accomplished on offense, falling in both matchups 6-0 and 9-1.

On Thursday versus St. Louis, the Reds managed a 9-1 win themselves to pull off a split in the series. Starter Andrew Abbott finished on 4.0 innings with one earned run, three hits, and four walks.

In the starting pitcher slot for the Reds on Friday, it’ll be Hunter Greene. So far this year, over six starts, Greene is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA over 36.2 innings total. In his career, Greene is 21-27 with a 3.79 ERA in 78 starts overall.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight road games following a win.
• The Reds have won each of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games following a road win.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in 12 of their last 13 road night games.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Reds’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Nationals following a home win.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last five games as favorites against the Nationals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Nationals’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five night games at Great American Ball Park.

Reds vs Nationals Prediction

I’ll stick with the Reds, so long as Greene can sharpen up his numbers a bit. On April 26, in Colorado, Greene recorded a win, but the rare air up there caused him to surrender three earned runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings—not bad, but not spectacular. The start before that was even worse, though, as Greene coughed up five earned runs on six hits and two walks in 3.0 innings during a loss in Baltimore. The good news, however, is that Greene notched 7.0 clean frames in a win over the Pirates on April 13, and he’s more than capable of taming the Nats hitters here.

Cincinnati bounced back well from their two-game loss on Wednesday with a Thursday win, holding the Cardinals to just three hits in the process (all given up by Abbott). The bullpen was great in relief with 5.0 combined innings, no hits, no walks, and six strikeouts between three arms. Another good performance behind Greene will result in another Reds victory—or set the stage for one at least.