Reds vs Nationals Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks Today

The Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds meet Saturday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Reds vs Nationals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Nationals pick.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Nationals fell in the first pair of series this year, dropping two of three games versus the Philadelphia Phillies and then getting swept by the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would get a pair of set victories versus the Diamondbacks and Dodgers from there, however, they then lost two more sets versus the Marlins and Pirates. After two more set wins against the Rockies and Orioles, the Nationals split a series against the New York Mets. The Nationals lost their first two games versus the Phillies, 7-6 and 7-2. In the Thursday finale, Washington powered out a 4-2 win to stop the sweep.

On Friday in the opener versus the Reds, Washington suffered a 6-1 defeat. Starter Mitchell Parker finished with 4.0 innings, five earned, four hits, and four walks.

For the Saturday starting pitcher role the Nationals are sending out Trevor Williams. This year Williams is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in six starts over 30.0 innings. In his career over the regular season Williams is 51-58 with a 4.35 ERA in 208 games (167 starts).

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Over on the Reds’ side, they opened up their season by dropping three consecutive sets versus the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati took a series victory in their rematch with the Giants, then managed to sweep the Pirates. Following a set loss versus the Mariners, the Reds took out the Orioles in a series before losing one versus the Marlins in two of three games. Cincinnati beat the Rockies in a sweep last weekend, then got a victory over the Cardinals on Monday. Tuesday’s game was rained out and pushed back to a doubleheader on Wednesday, both of which Cincinnati lost. On Thursday, the Reds managed to push the series to a 2-2 tie with a 9-1 blowout victory.

In the Friday game, Cincinnati out-hit the Nats 7-4 and scored five runs over the first three innings. Hunter Greene lasted 6.0 frames in the start with 12 Ks, two hits, two walks, and one earned run.

Starter for Saturday will be Nick Lodolo. This year, Lodolo is 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA in six starts over 36.0 innings total. Lodolo is 18-16 with a 4.24 ERA in 53 career games at the MLB level.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against the Nationals.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won each of their last six Saturday games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have lost seven of their last nine Saturday night games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against the Nationals following a home win.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Nationals’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Reds’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last six night games at Great American Ball Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Reds’ last 10 night games at Great American Ball Park.

Reds vs Nationals Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Reds here, as long as Lodolo can maintain form, that is. In his last start, Lodolo was looking pretty darn great with 7.0 innings, two hits, and one walk in a victory over Colorado on the road. In his two starts prior to that, however, Lodolo gave up a combined seven earned runs on 12 hits and three walks in 10.1 innings, going 0-1 in that pair. If he can bag a quality outing Saturday, though, the Reds will be set up well. As for Williams, he’s 0-2 in his last three games. Williams gave up five earned runs on five hits and a pair of walks in 5.1 innings versus the Mets his last time up, but he had just two earned runs over 10.0 innings across his two previous starts. 

Cincinnati played well on Friday, and I like them to keep it going here.