Reds vs Padres Prediction 9/10/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 10^th at the PETCO Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 79-66 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 44-26 home record, and are 61-78 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 2-4 home defeat by the Reds, that ended their three-game winning streak. Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Mets and the Rockies next.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .386 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 158 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 84, and in home runs, with 23.

Nick Pivetta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 73-72 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 33-38 road record and are 54-83 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Padres, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Cardinals and the Athletics next.

The Reds have a .246 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 152 hits, and in RBI, with 81, adding a team-high 19 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has an 8-6 record, 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 10, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.85
• Home Record: 8-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Padres following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday games as favorites against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games following a win.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Wednesday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 8-6      ERA: 2.88
• Road Record: 4-2
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as home favorites.
• The Reds have won four of their last five night games against NL West opponents following a road win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games.
• The road team has covered the run line in seven of the Padres’ last eight games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four home games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last four home games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Padres’ last 14 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Reds’ last six night games against National League opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Gavin Sheets has hit at least one home run in three of the Padres’ last four Wednesday games at Petco Park.
• Elias Diaz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Reds.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances with the Padres as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances against NL opponents.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last nine games against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez ranks T4th in the league in Hits (158) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Austin Hays has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three games as underdogs.
• Miguel Andujar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Wednesday night appearances.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Steals (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1073).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.236).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for hits allowed this season (1142).

Reds vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 4-3 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Reds, and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in San Diego. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 meetings.

In this Reds vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -160 home favorites. This is the definition of a pitcher’s duel, as both pitchers have 2.88 ERA or less, and Pivetta has been even better at home, with a 2.39 ERA. The Padres are weaker against left-handed pitching, and have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. The first two games of this series were low-scoring ones, with 6 and 7 total runs, and I expect this trend to continue into this matchup. Take the under 7.5 runs.