Reds vs Padres Prediction 6/27/25 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds meet Friday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Reds vs Padres Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Dylan Cease for the start here, and Cease is 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA and 109 strikeouts this season. In his career, Cease is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 16 strikeouts against the Reds. The Cincinnati Reds will start Nick Martinez here, and Martinez is 4-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 63 strikeouts this season. In his career, Martinez is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 9 strikeouts against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to build on their win over the Washington Nationals by a final score of 1-0 last time out to sit at 44-36 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Padres Win 4 Of Their Last 5

Manny Machado has 91 hits, including a team-high 20 doubles, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 78 hits with a team-high 15 home runs and 37 RBIs, along with 15 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 87 hits with 16 doubles, 4 triples, 3 home runs, and 30 RBIs, while Jackson Merrill’s added 56 hits with 5 home runs and 26 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 15 doubles and 13 stolen bases this season. Gavin Sheets also has 12 doubles, 12 home runs, and 46 RBIs this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won 14 of their last 15 games as favorites against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have lost each of their last six Friday night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Padres following a home loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has recorded a Double in four of the Padres’ last five road games against NL opponents.
• Manny Machado has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Gavin Sheets has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 night games.
• Manny Machado ranks T8th in the league in Hits (91) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to rebound from their 7-1 loss at the hands of the New York Yankees in Wednesday’s series finale to sit at 42-39 on the year. After this series, the Reds will head to Fenway for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Reds Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Elly De La Cruz has 86 hits with 18 home runs, 55 RBIs, 15 doubles, and 21 stolen bases, while TJ Friedl has 85 hits with 13 doubles, 8 home runs, and 30 RBIs with 9 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 62 hits with 14 doubles and 35 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has 6 home runs and 27 RBIs, and Matt McLain has added 9 homers, 27 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 17 doubles this season.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last nine home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Padres’ last eight games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jose Trevino has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in five of the Reds’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last nine games as underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (21) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Reds vs Padres Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. I just think that this is a case of two starting pitchers that I’m having a hard time trusting as of late, with Cease not being the Dylan Cease of old. Nick Martinez is getting shelled far more often than not this season. I think this ends up being a game with scoring early and often, so give me the over here.